From: wcw@math.psu.edu (William C Waterhouse) Subject: Re: Monty Hall interview Date: 4 Apr 2000 20:23:49 GMT Newsgroups: sci.math Summary: [missing] The interview was conducted by John Tierney and was printed in the New York Times for Sunday, July 21, 1991, starting on Section 1; Part 1; Page 1. Here are two relevant excerpts. --------------- After the 20 trials at the dining room table, the problem also captured Mr. Hall's imagination. He picked up a copy of Ms. vos Savant's original column, read it carefully, saw a loophole and then suggested more trials. On the first, the contestant picked Door 1. "That's too bad," Mr. Hall said, opening Door 1. "You've won a goat." "But you didn't open another door yet or give me a chance to switch." "Where does it say I have to let you switch every time? I'm the master of the show. Here, try it again." On the second trial, the contestant again picked Door 1. Mr. Hall opened Door 3, revealing a goat. The contestant was about to switch to Door 2 when Mr. Hall pulled out a roll of bills. "You're sure you want Door No. 2?" he asked. "Before I show you what's behind that door, I will give you $3,000 in cash not to switch to it." "I'll switch to it." "Three thousand dollars," Mr. Hall repeated, shifting into his famous cadence. "Cash. Cash money. It could be a car, but it could be a goat. Four thousand." "I'll try the door." "Forty-five hundred. Forty-seven. Forty-eight. My last offer: Five thousand dollars." "Let's open the door." "You just ended up with a goat," he said, opening the door. Mr. Hall continued: "Now do you see what happened there? The higher I got, the more you thought the car was behind Door 2. I wanted to con you into switching there, because I knew the car was behind 1. That's the kind of thing I can do when I'm in control of the game. You may think you have probability going for you when you follow the answer in her column, but there's the pyschological factor to consider." He proceeded to prove his case by winning the next eight rounds. ... --------------- And although Mr. Hall might have been violating the spirit of Ms. vos Savant's problem, he was not violating its letter. Dr. Diaconis and Mr. Gardner both noticed the same loophole when they compared Ms. vos Savant's wording of the problem with the versions they had analyzed in their articles. "The problem is not well-formed," Mr. Gardner said, "unless it makes clear that the host must always open an empty door and offer the switch. Otherwise, if the host is malevolent, he may open another door only when it's to his advantage to let the player switch, and the probability of being right by switching could be as low as zero." ... [B]ecause of the ambiguity in the wording, it is impossible to solve the problem as stated through mathematical reasoning. "The strict argument," Dr. Diaconis said, "would be that the question cannot be answered without knowing the motivation of the host." ... ---------------------- William C. Waterhouse Penn State ============================================================================== From: RM Mentock Subject: Re: Monty Hall interview Date: Tue, 04 Apr 2000 07:51:53 -0400 Newsgroups: rec.puzzles,sci.math domino66@my-deja.com wrote: > > Hi all, > my first post to this group. > I'm trying to track down a newspaper article that featured an interview > with Monty Hall himself, which discusses the infamous Monty Hall > problem. > I think it was in the NY Times, but I'm not 100% sure. > Does anyone have it, and can send it to me? > or does anyone know an address where I can find it? > thanks Try this: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/course/topics/Monty_Hall.html -- RM Mentock I'm up to my ears in music http://sentient.home.mindspring.com/dan/